CMC Markets专栏: 美股面临潜在下行风险

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CMC Markets, Tina Teng

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自上周美联储宣布将联邦基金基准利率保持在0.25%以下不变以后，美国各大股指再次出现下滑迹象，反映了投资者对于美国经济现状的担忧。美国8月份通货膨胀率出现负增长，录得-0.1%，远离2%的通胀目标。能源价格的低迷与中国货币贬值是影响其利息决议的主要因素。 美股自8月份急速下滑后始终无法出现具有说服力的反弹，从技术形态看来，美国三大股指，道琼斯指数，美国标普500与纳斯达克均呈现潜在再次下滑风险。
 
以道指技术图形为例，其面临进一步下行风险，潜在空头目标可能在15500附近，然后是13700附近。
 
道指的日线图与周线图上均显示潜在的空头信号，日线图中道指在上周四收近似止升锤的形态，周五收一条柱体较长的阴柱，连续两日出现下滑。尤其在周线图中可以看到上周基本形成较标准的顶部十字星形态，进一步支持潜在的空头走势。从月线图上看，MACD及stoch均出现由超买区下行穿破的形态，形成潜在的死叉。首个下行目标很可能在15500附近（黄金分割线23.6%），如果能够突破下跌则会进一步挑战下方13700附近（黄金分割线38.2%）的位置。

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Tina Teng在2015年6月份加入CMC Markets 担任销售与客户培训主管职务，负责亚太地区客户的培训和经济评论的撰写工作。她具有其独树一帜的市场视角和技术分析方法，认为金融市场是集历史，经济，政治，心理学与哲学于一身的学问。技术分析是市场基本面的可视性技术语言；而对于技术性语言的解读与对各国家经济、政治与历史背景分析的结合，与对投资心理状态的理解才会是对金融市场最全面的感知。自2012至2015年，Tina Teng曾任职金融经纪公司客户服务部经理为客户提供外汇差价合约方面的培训工作。此前，自2005年至2009年，她曾经在中国中央电视台广告经济中心任职，负责撰写中国广告经济方面的评论文章，造就了她对于中国经济现状和企业现状有深入的理解和敏锐的洞察力。